How to Predict the Future!
And now for a great cocktail party trick to impress your friends.
As an aside, I was sure there was an expression that had the phrase “impress your friends” in it. So I turned to the internet, typed in “impress your friends expression,” and here’s what came up:
To impress your friends, use clever, uncommon expressions like shoot the breeze or read between the lines. But sound natural: keep your voice calm, don’t use too many expressions at once.
Say you were shooting the breeze with your friends and wanted to knock their socks off, but your clever, uncommon expressions weren't cutting it. Good news! You can tell them that you know how to predict the future.
"I don’t want to toot my own horn,” you say, "but I can tell you with high confidence what a politician will do on a given issue. "
Heads turn, phones go into pockets; you have a captive audience.
You pause. You brush a bit of lint off your shoulder.
“It comes down to one metric that you, too, can use,” you say, magnanimously.
“My friends, ask yourself this question: Does the politician stand to gain or lose power here?"
Heads are nodding. They are in the palm of your hand. The master showman you long suspected lay dormant inside you is finally awakening.
“Power isn’t inherently bad,” you note. You are a person of nuance, you see the finer detail that mere mortals may overlook. “You need power to get bills passed, funding levels changed, and much more.”
Of course, the audience murmurs, yes, yes. They are picking up what you’re putting down.
“Say a Senator doesn’t vote for a bill you like. Decent chance they thought voting for it would cost them power with a constituency they care about."
Aha! You have introduced a new concept: constituencies! It sounds familiar enough, but the audience looks to you to make it clear.
“Constituencies are the different groups a politician needs to keep happy to get elected. For simplicity’s sake,” you say with a winning smile, "let’s boil a politician’s constituencies into two groups: people and political party.
“People means the people who live in the politician's district. Politicians need to keep enough of those people happy so they can get reelected. Political party, on the other hand, means what the majority of politicians in their party are doing on this vote.
Do you have a friend, parent, sibling who could use some democracy power knowledge? Why not forward this along to them!
“Easy Street is when people and political party are aligned,” you explain. "That’s the case for the majority of politicians on the majority of issues. No power lost there.
“Not-So-Easy Street is when people and party are out of step. Say the majority of your political party is voting against data center regulations, but the people in your district want you to vote for data center regulations."
You take a beat. This next piece is the keystone in the arch, the rosetta in the stone; it deserves its own moment.
"Voting against your party can cost you money for your re-elect; voting against your people can cost you your re-elect.”
If you need a bit of beauty, here’s the remarkable story of a politician who risked voting against his people.
You wait for this to sink in. There are a lot of “Mmmms” in the crowd. Now, you serve the main course:
"The more we know about a politician’s district, the more we can predict how they’ll vote on just about anything."
Want to get a politician to yes? Here’s a helpful read on how knowing a politician’s district can get them closer to yes.
Now, you have always liked dessert, so you offer up a sweetener to your friends.
“If you’re just wiped trying to stay on top of the news, here’s the secret: focus on the politicians who represent you. You’ll learn all about the major players, employers, stakeholders in their districts, which is invaluable data for both predicting what a politician will do and framing an ask they can say yes to.”
Your friends sits in reverent silence. Their socks have been so far knocked off, they may have to buy a new pair.
It’s time to do as George Costanza does and leave on a high note. You toss your coat over your shoulder, grab the door handle, and turn to offer one parting thought before heading into the night:
“This prediction power shouldn’t belong to a few of us. It belongs to all of us. So spread it around. Our democracy, and I, thank you."
You triumphantly walk out the door, and straight into the broom closet.
Our democracy is strongest when more people know how to participate. Why not share this with a friend or two? Our democracy, and I, thank you.