One Question that Explains Most of Politics

I once read that a good story starts from one of two driving questions:

Why is this happening? One Hundred Years of Solitude kicks off with Colonel Aureliano Buendía standing before a firing squad. We've got to know why.

Why isn't this happening? The play Waiting for Godot involves a lot of waiting for Godot, who - spoiler alert - never comes. Why isn't he coming?

When it comes to understanding why a politician is or isn't doing something, the answer almost always boils down to one word.

And that word is sauerkraut.

Nope, just kidding.

It's power.

One useful decoder to help understand what's driving a politician's decision is to look at it through the prism of power. Specifically, do they stand to gain or lose power here?

The answer will vary from politician to politician.

One Congresswoman might stand to gain power by passing a particular piece of healthcare reform because she has a lot of older folks in her district who'd benefit from it. Another Congressman might stand to lose power because his party is vehemently opposed to it.

What's useful about this question - does the politician stand to gain or lose power here - is it's a door opener: it invites us into understanding more about the three underlying factors shaping many a policy decision.

• The politician - their personality and most importantly, how they see themselves (Senator John McCain, for example, saw himself as a maverick)
• Their district - major employers, industries, constituencies
• Their relationship to their party - do they walk the party line, are they willing to buck leadership, etc.

The more we know about these three legs of the stool, the more we can accurately answer Do they stand to gain or lose power here?

And the more we can accurately answer that, the more we can frame asks of our politicians that create policy (and power) wins.